China, Russia gearing up for war?

Are China and Russia setting themselves up for a war against the US, and possibly NATO allies? Recent events within and between the two nations seem to point in that rather ominous direction.

The following story from ZDNet caught my eye today:

The New Zealand secret service has suggested the Chinese government was behind attacks on the country’s networks…The allegations come only a week after the Chinese foreign ministry denied that the Chinese government had endorsed attacks on the computer networks of Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom.

“Any accusation of Chinese military force attacking computer systems of foreign governments is groundless, irresponsible and out of ulterior motives,” Chinese foreign-ministry representative Jiang Yu said in a recent press conference.

So the US, Canada, the UK, Germany and New Zealand are all claiming that the Chinese are engaged in heavy cyber-spying operations within each of their systems. A few years back we also had the whole Titan Rain incident, and there have been other allegations since.

Additionally, we have reports of Russian planes having to be turned away from NATO airspace by the RAF and the Norwegians, and Putin’s showing of his shiny new bombs.

Finally we have a building political block between Russia and China which is not only increasingly hostile against US foreign policy (understandably so, since US policy has gotten so horribly forceful since 2001), but also increasingly outspoken in rhetoric against NATO.

China and Russia are on the move, and not in the good way. Russia’s been itching to get back into World Superpower status, and general consensus seems to be that the 21st century will be “The Chinese Century” (in like manner to the 20th century being often referred to as “The American Century”). In the informational front, China’s been making a lot of moves, as the quoted article above tells. In the military front, Russia’s been starting to make waves again, but they’re not the only ones: by some accounts, China has greatly increased their military spending, while underreporting what they’re spending. (This, of course, is disputed, and countered with the fact that the US spends at least 5 times more than China, including a larger portion of its GDP in military spending.)

With a weakening US, drained by years of wasteful wars, horrific economic management, and deficit-spending (debt which was bought by China), the two may be poising themselves to capitalize on the US’s seeming economic (and politically influential) demise, especially since China now pulls so many of the economic strings. In fact, economics is their third game. When you consider the facts — that China owns now over $1-trillion of US debt, that it has just bought a major stake in Barclay (a major world bank), and that within the next ten years it will have finally caught up with the economic management of the West (currently, the Chinese don’t have the knowledge to compete with Western banking systems, but they’re quickly catching up) — a picture starts to come together which puts China, and a quickly re-emerging Russian political system, which is quickly returning to its Soviet roots, along with an economy beginning to model itself on the new Chinese mixed economic model, in the forefront of US opposition.

Now, I’m not much for political and historical analysis– Alright, that’s a lie. I am, so here’s some Tom Clancy-like speculation:

On one side we have US and its allies: NATO, which is starting to split over various issues so that the EU is on one side of things and the US, Canada, and England on the other; and Australia. On the other side we have Russia and China, who are building major economic bridges all over the place, especially in Africa and Central/South America. (If you didn’t know, the Chinese have been building schools to teach people Chinese for free in many of the Caribbean and Central American countries, as well as helping the governments build infrastructure.)

What’s interesting is how all of these economic blocks are being put together. And note that they are economic blocks, and not necessarily political ones. This may be the thing which stops all out war, and may be the reason why China has taken to cyber-espionage. What interest would they have in harming any of their major economic partners, at least just yet?

Now, this is important, take note at the wild cards in all of this: South Korea and Japan, both of which own hundreds of billions in US debt, both of which are US allies; and the sleeping cultural and economic giant that is India.

Putting this picture together doesn’t necessarily spell doom for any side. Indeed, it may be a hopeful sign, than free enterprise can rising wave towards war, like it did during the India/Pakistan nuclear crisis. But from the looks of it, China’s looking for their place in the sun, and they’re doing a hell of a lot of maneuvering — through Russia, Latin-America, Africa, computer networks and via the banking system — to make sure it happens.

Students of eschatology must be loving this.

4 thoughts on “China, Russia gearing up for war?

  1. I think this is a bit premature.

    Right now, all we have are politically charged accusations. Until there’s hard evidence, I doubt there will be much reaction beyond speculation.

    Then again, I’m somewhat of an optimist at this…

  2. I think this is WAY premature. That said, it’s always interesting to speculate, and one way to ensure that a future we don’t want doesn’t happen is to make sure what the consequences of our actions may be. Fact is that the consequences of the US’s actions include weakening its position within the international community. Likewise, a consequence of the Chinese and Russian action is to again divide the world into blocks, all the while another consequence of American unilateral action is to weaken longstanding alliances.

    The sad part is that hard evidence in these matters has a habit of coming when it’s already too late.

    Optimist or pessimist, this kind of scenario makes for one helluva fiction story.

  3. It certainly dose add up, Do not forget Taiwan. America has guarantee Taiwanese Independence if it is attacked. In 2008 Taiwan will vote if it should declare formal Independence, which from what i have seen- has overwhelming support.

    The 10th session of PRC has passed a anti succession law, that authorizes the use of force- to suppress any piece of China ( what they consider to be China) This bill is mainly focused on Taiwan.

    In a nutshell, this means the CCP says that the PLA can attack ROC if they declare formal Independence.

    The only way i see to avoid war, is to make a regional military alliance with India in the event of any Singo aggression against either of the countries interests. China will not allow such a large threat to exist on it’s flank- deterring China from declaring war on anyone.

    The devaluement of the Chines currency by 50% must also be taken into consideration. They have cheated the world market for years- bringing false statistics to the Chinese economy.

    With Russian technology, and Chinese numbers, and industrial capacity, they can be a extremely potent threat.

    With Russia putting all their eggs in the middle East, and China (along with Russia) refusing to allow any actions to be taken against Iran- a 3rd party friendly to the Singo-Russian alliance. Fanatical islam.

    Fanatical islam is a great threat to humanity- already are they engaged in battle- the saying goes. ” The enemy of my enemy is my friend” I believe, the Singo-Russian alliance will seek to cozy up to fanatical islam in the false belief they can ‘control them’

    Russia has already tried this, with Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, and now Iran- they have been supplying them weapons to use against Israel for years- in the hopes of gaining the trust and influence with them.

    Right now, Russia is waging a indirect war with America, by supplying Iran with Russian weaponry- who in turn arms the insurgency in Iraq- and Hezbolla in Gaza and Lebanon.

  4. Wake up people, its just a matter of time before war is declared on us, i mean open your eyes people we are going the wrong direction in life and life as we know it will soon end, i gurantee it.

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